Q and A with Mary
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What is a futurist?
I’m asked this question all the time. Many people think a futurist is a psychic, and I assure you, this is not the case! In a business sense, a futurist is usually a highly educated professional who conducts business forecasts using data and various methodologies to paint an accurate picture of what the future will look like and the implications for the client.
A futurist’s job is to define the certainties and uncertainties that lie ahead—to create an information environment that will help senior executives and other leaders make smarter decisions and create fresh, sustainable strategies for being successful over the longer term.
How is a forecast different from a prediction?
That’s a great question. No one can really predict the future, no matter who they are. There are few things that are that certain about the future except age: If you’re 25 today, you’ll be 35 in 10 years. Here’s how I see the difference between a forecast and a prediction.
• Prediction—To foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reasoning. Often include a specific, quantitative description of the future.
• Forecast—A forecast adds the implication of anticipating eventualities, and differs from prediction in that it’s concerned with probabilities rather than certainties. Includes an explanation of why the future will be as forecast.
Are there certain methods that are used in forecasting?
Yes. There are many different tools available. At Global Foresight, we are pretty eclectic in our methodologies, choosing the tools we think offer the best opportunity to create a valid and reliable forecast for the question we were asked to answer.
When we work with clients, we might mix expert workshops with judgment-based extrapolation; create scenarios and conduct research surveys; use ethnographic research and econometrics; utilize spreadsheet modeling, various mapping techniques, and case studies of innovation; or all of the above. In times of lots of uncertainty, when the future won’t resemble the past, the most valid forecasts come from a combination of some data and iterative expert judgment.
Are your forecasts usually right?
Since I’ve been forecasting for over 25 years, my work today has the benefit of the several hundred forecasts I have completed with a wide range of clients. So yes, I’d say my forecasts usually are right. In the end, the most challenging thing about forecasting is being right on the timing of drivers and trends—not what they will be, but when they’ll hit, and what their impact will be.
Do you have a specialty?
If you mean do I tend to concentrate my work in one area or another, the answer is no. I’ve done forecasting and strategy work successfully across a number of industries—energy, high tech, consumer goods and services, health care, financial services, general aviation, accounting, and I could go on. I’ve done work in well over 60 countries, including extensive work in China.
A forecast team is made up of diverse experts and always includes an industry expert. No one can complete a forecast alone. Driving forces and trends across a number of areas from demographics to technology create changes in industries. An Industry specialist’s view can be skewed by having so much vertical knowledge that it’s difficult to for them to see see changes ahead. dependent forecast.
That is why we believe that having a diverse team is absolutely a key ingredient to creating a robust and reliable forecast. So our approach is to use a range of traditional—or sometimes not so traditional— forecasting tools and methods, plus our own expertise. we’ll assemble a range of experts from all the key areas whose perspectives add immense depth and breadth to what the client gets.
How did end up working in so many different countries?
I’ve always been interested in other cultures and countries. I traveled as much as I could when I was very young. Early in my career, I worked a lot in health care and was an innovator in the design of health care programs and systems. Later, I was asked by many different countries around the world to help them transform their delivery systems. This took me to Africa and many developing countries.
When I moved into corporate work, the perspective this global experience gave me was very useful to companies trying to bridge distance, culture, and time. today most of my corporate work spans both the has advanced economies and the big emerging economies like China and India.
How and why come to write your books, one of them a best-seller?
I enjoy putting the pieces of the puzzle together and coming up with new ideas and ways of thinking or solving problems. I also like to tell stories. I tend to work on ideas for 5-7 years and then have a great urge to put them together and share them with other people. Writing is like the final stage of synthesis and the creation of the story. For me it’s hard to get the story right if I don’t write about it. Writing is like alchemy.
What do like besides work?
Although my work is a lot of fun and I enjoy it, I also love to do other things and am very good about making time for them. I love the theatre, especially new plays and small stages. I’m a regular at the San Francisco Opera and the San Francisco Jazz Festival.
There’s nothing better than a walk on the beach, or visiting a tide pool at low tide. We have a beach house in Bodega Bay, California, in Sonoma County, where going wine-tasting and picnicking with friends is always a delight. I golf, but not well. I have a big family, and a great dog that I spoil more than I train. Life is good!